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Author Topic: level of risk?  (Read 2348 times)

lucky luke

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level of risk?
« on: February 14, 2012, 08:54:36 PM »

I red the post "entire route collapse" in "enjury section" and I know that some people don't even go to the cliff to see the ice, go to the cliff and bail or go to the cliff and climb. Those three person in any situation, will have the same behavior. Too much risk or not enought? Sure, we are going to say that we are in the middle.

But how do you estimate your level of risk? for myself, my limits is a major inury. I accept a broken arm or leg. When I make my estimation, if the danger is higher...I bail. what is your limit?
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DWT

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2012, 09:24:37 PM »

I can't think of one time I thought to myself "I guess I'd be cool with a broken arm or leg today".  When I get to the base of a climb I'm always thinking "what is the safest way to climb this, where's the gear, and where's the next belay".  Everyone's climbed on without having all the answers, but a broken arm.  HUH?
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apbt1976

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2012, 09:55:26 PM »

I can't think of one time I thought to myself "I guess I'd be cool with a broken arm or leg today".  When I get to the base of a climb I'm always thinking "what is the safest way to climb this, where's the gear, and where's the next belay".  Everyone's climbed on without having all the answers, but a broken arm.  HUH?

In Champ's defense i get what he is saying. I accept a injury within reason if something out of my control is to happen or in the case i majorly fuck up! I do not accept sure death or a brain injury.

I am not saying these are the rules i play by or what i think "AT ALL" but my guess is that this is maybe what he is saying? If so it makes perfect sense to me. Again not what i think when i look at a pitch of ice but?

My opinion is that just about any of the above scenario are a possible anytime we step on ice. Maybe more maybe less depending on conditions weather so forth and so on and a bunch of other variables that are often somewhat within our control but ultimately out of our control when it really comes down to it.

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DMan

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2012, 09:58:28 PM »

LOL, “accept a broken arm or leg”.

You are funny.

IRL, every one has their own personal level of risk acceptance. Your’s sounds particularly high but who am I to judge.

To answer your question, we all sense “perceived risk” whether or not our perception is in line with actual risk. Then we act, whether it be to send the route, take the whipper, or go home and try later when we are stronger.

Personally, and simply put, if I think there’s a good chance I’ll get hurt I don’t do it... hero ice climbing included.

If you’re dying for a number let’s say if I calculate a 13.75% chance or higher of getting hurt I back off. Is that what you’re looking for?
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lucky luke

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2012, 10:38:12 PM »

I'm always thinking "what is the safest way to climb this, where's the gear, and where's the next belay".  Everyone's climbed on without having all the answers, but a broken arm.  HUH?

Of course, I'm thinking "what is the safest way to climb...and what is the more fun. At cathedral, the safest is upper refuse, but black lung is more fun...and book of solenity (5.9+)... It is obvious that we don't climb to be injure.

You climb an ice route and, after the first pitch,  you have to take a decision to traverse hight or low to a column of 45 feet. If you traverse high, it is on rock and you can fall on your back in 25% of the case. The chance to go to the other side is 70%. If you traverse low, it is ice and you can broke your leg in a fall in 5% of the case. The chance to go to the other side is 50%. Are you going to bail or to try a move?   

It is more that kind of question that I like to discuss. I thing that I will try it at 50% with a lower chance to broke my leg. In any case, going above our last pro is taking a risk. In fact, I am not good at mixe climbing. Ha ha     
« Last Edit: February 14, 2012, 11:13:57 PM by champoing »
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The other tomcat

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2012, 10:52:32 PM »

I wish I was that confident. For me yes, I end up making decisions that ask " would I die or just break something"  Not saying I do this often, but, we are just talking about rare circumstance I presume, not a way of life. It usually has to be something I want, not stumble into.

I clip the first bolt on Revolt, the 5.9+ pitch, with a locker, but I'm pretty sure I'd break something if I blow the next clip.

For sure I've covered a lot of poorly protected crappy dirty grassy shyte I could'a died on, and no I wouldn't say I always had it under control...lol.

I'm inclined to think many of the Rp's and small wires and small  cams might not have held all the time.And without the odds change

Really, hard ground, most of it, has good protection, or at least as hard as I have climbed. It's the rest.

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Tom Stryker

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2012, 11:34:16 PM »

Call me chicken, call me yellow, but a one-in-200 chance (by my perception) of getting a broken limb is about as high as a risk I am willing to take on anything these days.  In my current condition, the chance of getting an injury from training is not nearly as low as I like so any significant chance of getting benched for 3 to 6 months due to a broken limb is just not acceptable. 
DMan made a good point, the 'real' level of risk is often not in line with our perceived risk.  I know I tend to overestiamte the level of risk.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2012, 11:37:48 PM by sneoh »
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"You have to decide to do a flag, where you can broke your vertebrae or a barn door depending of your pro" - the poster formerly known as Champ

slink

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2012, 06:40:44 AM »

Freedom of the hills says stay in control and do not fall :)   So Champ why would you accept breaking a limb???
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bailing is not failing!!!

tradmanclimbz

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2012, 07:09:44 AM »

Gee wiz thelma, I think I would like a broken leg today.. preferably an open spiral fracture ::)


If you continually take a 1 in 100 chance that gives you a 100% chance of getting hurt if you climb  over 100 days...   learned that in pistol competition. If your gun only malefunctions once every 100rds  it is a 100% garuentee to get a jam in the competition as they usually averages 125 rounds fired.

I rarely make a move that I am not 100% certain is going to work out ok..  It happens but not too often.
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The other tomcat

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2012, 07:44:50 AM »

I've climbed with Champ, and he seems not any more or less a risk taker than others I know from here. I do think different posters here may have very different perceptions of the possibility of injury,particularly on trad climbs.

I hang on something just about any time I go out and climb around my limit for a day, at some point, but fall very little. But I've seen people take falls and get hurt doing the routes just the same way I approached them. Intimidation being one ( didn't see but happened to a friend).

I'd have not the least idea how to determine if it's 1/100, 1/200, 1/1000, so maybe you guys can educate me on that part.

« Last Edit: February 15, 2012, 07:46:58 AM by The other tomcat »
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Tom Stryker

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2012, 08:05:56 AM »

If you continually take a 1 in 100 chance that gives you a 100% chance of getting hurt if you climb  over 100 days...

Not to split hairs here but that statement is false.

Since we’re talking guns, think Russian Roulette. You might die first game. You may never die. A 1/6 chance does not mean you’ll definitely die if you play 6 rounds, as the chamber gets spun each turn.
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lucky luke

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2012, 09:29:51 AM »

I'd have not the least idea how to determine if it's 1/100, 1/200, 1/1000, so maybe you guys can educate me on that part.

Hi Tom.

It is mostly the question.

As a beginer, I was climbing in remote area in Quebec. My biggest fear was to be trap high above my last pro with nothing else to do than jumping. So, I began to try to evaluate when I can go and why I should bail. Bailing is some times more painfull than risking as you remember for many year that you should have try... Fortunately, I began at a low level, 5.7 in remote area. It is close to a route like recompense. When I trained, going to the top was not an objective any more. But learning the limit of a movement was the goal. In ice, I trained pure technique (just crampon, crampon and one ice axe, pidgeon hole...etc) and at the end of the day, I did top rope very fast to understand what was my mistake. When I wasn't in overtraining, my technique was better than today. As I lead, and as Sneoh explain on overestimating the risk, my evaluation of  risk change. There is real risk and false one. Someone soloing with 100% chance of doing the move is less careless than a newbye going out of the gym. But try to tell to a 19 years old guy who climb 5.11 in a gym that he didn't have the experience of a 5.7 climber. Try to explain that, as you know more technique, you have a better idea of how to evaluate the other climber and, by imitation of good climber, you can improve in safety.

As for the 1/100, 1/1000 I can not explain it for other as I don't know the physical condition and difference of reach of the other. It is understainable for people with some academic background. I always try to climb with people of different level. Some times, beginer are more natural than old one. Actually, I like to climb with very experience climber, Base, Steeve Arsenault, Joe Cote, Georges Hurley, etc. There is a very good description of a technical climber on the forum, Bouchard, climbing repentence this winter. All them climb so naturally with good technique and they are so generous to show you your mistake ( as when you have hard time to do a move for fifteen minutes and he came after with the question: could I? And do the move very easily). Or climbing the book of sol... in a 5.10+ variation to see if you read the rock at 5.9 or follow what the leader did. Climbing with your girl friend some week end and finally going to the big one with a good friend. In all that, it is not a solution that someone told you, but an accumulation of good and bad experiences who bring you to the evaluation of a movement and it seriousness.

So, I don't know for you at to calculate the risk, but I know for me. As much I climb in different area, better is my evaluation.

           
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The other tomcat

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2012, 12:25:05 PM »

Ok,so just to kick this along a bit I will ask as best I can, with absolutely no intention of insult to any climbing user group. Over the years the slingshot approach has gained a lot of acceptance. Back when I was a puppy in the Gunks, I just about never lowered off. Now I understand that the demographic is much bigger and broader, but damn, even a lot of super experienced, daredevil leaders, thinking say say Romano, Hill, a score of others, have been seriously injured while lowering, yet I doubt anyone here perceives the practice as being risky.

Do you ever notice how really few injuries are the result of going for it on hard terrain with less than perfect gear? People get hurt running out easy ground and breaking a hold, they get their leg caught in a loop of rope over their shoulder and pitch off,etc.

To me that lowering and gri-gri's seem the most dangerous thing going on. I don't own a gri-gri because I hardly ever single rope.

I know two guys lot's of you know, brothers, who both have had serious accidents in the last few years, doing the exact same stuff we all do regularly. So I'm saying I'm not sure we really even have a clear picture of where the real risks are. I finally learned to put my helmet on when I am at the bottom of the clift (had to do that), NOT when I start the lead.
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Tom Stryker

tradmanclimbz

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2012, 05:05:33 PM »

Lowering is definatly a big one...and it puts more wear on your rope than just about anything else that you do climbing.
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lucky luke

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Re: level of risk?
« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2012, 06:03:30 PM »

Lowering is definatly a big one...and it puts more wear on your rope than just about anything else that you do climbing.

So we have people who don't want to take risk, be lower regularly. Evaluating our level of risk is not so easy.As tom said, we are not in a death/life situation at each day. What his the opinion of those who was in dangerous situation more than once and how they evaluate there level of risk. For example, Steve Arsenault describe his fall in the prow and climb to the top after a fall of close to 100 meters... How those experiences change our way to climb?   
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