### Author Topic: level of risk?  (Read 8679 times)

#### lucky luke

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #30 on: February 18, 2012, 08:01:18 PM »
But how a beginer can estimate is level of risk?
I'm not saying it's wrong, but I don't think I have ever met anyone so intent on quantifying subject matter, again and again, that has so many variables.

The beginners will figure it out just like everybody else did, and be stronger for it. They will do some stupid things, for sure, who hasn't.

Curiously, Dave, I don't quantifying any thing in the level of risk. Determining a level of risk with a broken arm is a qualitative description. It is opposed to a percentage of risk, a very quantifying way. It is what fresh and Dman discuss before. Note that I gave the matematical description because I thought often of how to describe the level of risk.

Before, a beginer go to the cliff and learn how to climb. A lot of good climber, climb and climb every day. Today, they go to the gym, have many magasine, and internet. They have bolt and new equipment.

Unfortunately, a beginer today can not figure it out like you did because they know how to climb 5.11 before how to climb safely.

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #31 on: February 18, 2012, 08:27:50 PM »
If you are worried about the risks in climbing take up bowling!!

+++

that made it into the quotes database...
Al Hospers
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my music
http://www.soundsclever.com

#### DLottmann

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #32 on: February 18, 2012, 08:36:08 PM »
No, Champ, you are WRONG. Just because a person may learn 5.11 in the gym doesn’t mean they don’t have the same opportunity to learn to climb safe as Dave, Strand, Robert Underhill, and everyone else did. If anything the modern information age probably reduces the amount of people lead climbing on clothesline.

Big picture-wise we all still learn the same shit we did in the 1930’s. Regardless of internet and bolt. The process is the same. Trial and error, professional instruction or “friend of a friend who learned how to climb in the Scouts (and everything in between).

A beginner either learns “level of risk” from a knowledgable partner, on their own through trial & error, with a climbing guide... or.... ALL THREE as I did from 15 to 22 years of age, when I started guiding.

Here’s the thing, at 34 years (19 years of climbing), I’m STILL learning. It doesn’t stop. You don’t reach some god-like awareness by trad climbing. You are not always safe sport climbing.

Your generalizations, assumptions, and attempts at quantifying un-quatifiable ideas are becoming so tiring. Let it go man. LOL. “Let it go”. I should practice what I preach.

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #33 on: February 19, 2012, 07:14:47 AM »
I actually agree on one of champs points here. gym climbers in their first year outside climb way stronger than we ever did when we were starting out but they are just as stupid as we were which leads them into getting in troubble on much harder climbs than we did.  Get in over your head on a 5.5 on one of your early leads and chances are very good you will not fall.. the same can not be said about 5.9+ and  sometimes these 5.11 climbing gym rats seem to think 9+ should be easy... Seen some scary crap and one broken ankle over this mindset.. wait , that shouldn't bother champ, he is willing to risk broken leg to get up climb that the risk sport could not realize  the gym climber

#### lucky luke

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #34 on: February 19, 2012, 11:33:39 AM »
Seen some scary crap and one broken ankle over this mindset.. wait , that shouldn't bother champ, he is willing to risk broken leg to get up climb that the risk sport could not realize  the gym climber

It is right!  it is my limit of risk, when done consciently. In Quebec, we had a guy who place a pro in a crack and rest on it like what they do in a gym or in sport route. The pro fail and he died. I didn't say anything. Second accident, the climber was over a tv plate. it is a hole in a whaterfall (when the water fall, the air go throught the ice and made it very brittle). The guy climb on it and felt inside, between the ice and the rock. An other one, a couple, they had two children each. They felt from a portaledge because they didn't stay tie in with the rope on the wall.

I began to talk and was very disagreable to those people who said that it is safe just to attrack client. As we don't have old climber in quebec, the sport ethic was stronger than in north Conway. As they make a banalisation of the danger and they give the impression that they are strong climber because they climb high grade, they attract a lot of newbye. The ethic bottom up is' pratically inexistant these days. Actually, climbing at Canon is consider very dangerous because few people have the knowledge. did you really think that there was no rock fall in the early age?

Actually, I think that it will be wise to make a distinction between sport and trad. Some like competition and emulation of a group, some like the chalenge and partnership of an expedition even of few hour. I understand that some are between sport and trad and look for both or some aspect of it. But it will avoid replics like: if you are a climber, he will come back...as the ice colapse in what they be told a safe place.

Knowing our level of risk, or when to bail, is important in anybody who don't use bolt (except bouldering)
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 04:21:21 PM by champoing »

#### DGoguen

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #35 on: February 19, 2012, 04:33:56 PM »
Actually, I think that it will be wise to make a distinction between sport and trad.
Bingo. Full circle.

#### DGoguen

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #36 on: February 19, 2012, 05:03:34 PM »
Curiously, Dave, I don't quantifying any thing in the level of risk. Determining a level of risk with a broken arm is a qualitative description.

That's an awful lot of numbers for not quantifying something.

You climb an ice route and, after the first pitch,  you have to take a decision to traverse hight or low to a column of 45 feet. If you traverse high, it is on rock and you can fall on your back in 25% of the case. The chance to go to the other side is 70%. If you traverse low, it is ice and you can broke your leg in a fall in 5% of the case. The chance to go to the other side is 50%. Are you going to bail or to try a move?

The last line should read " What time does the train arrive in Chicago"
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 05:07:29 PM by DGoguen »

#### lucky luke

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #37 on: February 19, 2012, 06:06:28 PM »

But how do you estimate your level of risk? for myself, my limits is a major inury. I accept a broken arm or leg. When I make my estimation, if the danger is higher...I bail. what is your limit?

Dave. The question is how you estimate your level of risk. Estimation is for me a broken leg or arm. I don't accept a major injury. and there is no quantifying thing, it is qualitative. Fest make a quantitative

If you change the question and ask me what his my chance to make a traverse. I can exprime it in percentage. It is one variable to know in the level of risk. Presence of a ledge is an other variable in the level or risk. I took every think to be safe and never trust someone who told me just do that without any advice.

How do you estimate the possiblity to make a move? You certainly have a good answer to it. You practice in top rope and when you are sure to make the move, your don't have to estimate it? Old crag climber always talk at the bottom of the cliff and they change there way of thinking to a better one. There is always exception.

#### DGoguen

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #38 on: February 19, 2012, 07:23:47 PM »
Dave. The question is how you estimate your level of risk. Estimation is for me a broken leg or arm. I don't accept a major injury.
Have you ever seriously broken an arm or a leg while climbing?  Like multiple bones, foot going the other way broken.

#### DLottmann

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #39 on: February 19, 2012, 07:50:45 PM »
I’m sure he hasn’t because he practices “body x position” all the time...

#### lucky luke

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #40 on: February 19, 2012, 08:08:59 PM »
Have you ever seriously broken an arm or a leg while climbing?  Like multiple bones, foot going the other way broken.

I was lucky not to have to much injury. ordinarly, I fall twice a year. More than ounce, I made mistake and could have be injure... more than a leg. I had two injury. The first one, I was very lucky because I undercling a loose block being careless. the block cut my rope at six places. The second, is not really in the cliff. I had a shoulder dislocation. I climb often in remote area where the only human being was at 20 kilometers away with no communication.

The answer is yes. I thought more than one time at what happen if I fall and I can share my experiences without trying to convic other people that my estimation is the only one. In cathedral, there is always people and a broken leg can not finish by the death of a person. In Malbaie, the closest route is at one hour from the cliff or on the other side of a river. If you hang on the air and you can't use your hand to get out of trouble...you are in problem. Safety take a different meaning.

it is hard to say to a nw climber learn your safety before climber hard...when some people try to minimize the importance of learning technique. Now to go to pinacle gully, we don't need to know about avalanches and snow pocket, we just have to wait that the level danger is low.

#### DLottmann

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #41 on: February 19, 2012, 08:29:52 PM »
Have you ever seriously broken an arm or a leg while climbing?  Like multiple bones, foot going the other way broken.
The second, is not really in the cliff. I had a shoulder dislocation...

Now to go to pinacle gully, we don't need to know about avalanches and snow pocket, we just have to wait that the level danger is low.

1) I have close friends who watched you dislocate your shoulder climbing at Cathedral. Not saying you did anything wrong, but wasn’t it pitch 1 of Recompense?

2) Yes, we do. Not knowing about avalanches means not knowing how to read the bulletin. Not knowing means we can’t recognize the “snow pocket”.

And let’s be honest, most climbers who drive 3+ hours to climb Pinnacle will still go up there is the danger is “Moderate”, and often higher. Truly understanding current conditions, trigger points, and safer travel techniques is good for any climber. Waiting till it is always “low danger” eliminates many reasonable climbing days.

#### mechanicalchris

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #42 on: April 03, 2012, 11:11:19 AM »
How can you estimate if you're going to break your leg or not lol?

When I took that fall on White Horse it definitely effected my climbing. In a way it was a great experience, the whole system worked and I only bumped my knee but it shattered the facade, my hubris and newbie sense of confidence. Now as soon as I feel in over my head, my leg starts shaking and my climbing goes out the window.

My risk management now is to lead things I believe I have a 99% chance of completing while mitigating the other 1% with gear placements. As has been expressed to me by some pretty talented (older) climber friends, "you shouldn't lead ice if you think there's a chance you could fall." To which I say, "What about trad?" ... to which they say, "Basically the same rule applies."

I'm not thinking about the specific anatomical injuries as that would further degrade my prospect for a successful lead. Of course, even this prudent approach proves inadequate most of the time. I get pissed off because there's a huge generation gap between good trad climbers and the next gen and the beta is abstract at best. Unlike most hobbies, it seems to resemble an upside down pyramid, with most of the knowledge and participants being decades older and better and fewer new entrants into trad.

Most of the route descriptions, beta, and tips comes from you accomplished guys who can't really remember what its like to be new. So then I show up with my girlfriend and a route will say something inviting like "Joe's Joe's First Ascent: great 5.4 beginners route follow the obvious crack". So then I'm thinking, "Ok Im on-siting 5.10 at the gym and 5.8 at Rumney, I know there's disparity between the ratings and I'm not great but 5.4? C'mon this has to be well below my ability, we have to have finally found a route that's challenging, safe, and fun."

So then I'm cruising and everything is working great and then all of a sudden the gear placements start to become non-existent and the moves get crimpy, the 5.4 feels more like a 5.8 and then my leg starts shaking, there's no obvious crack, wet moss everywhere, and its non-stop terror until I flop over the top in relief." It never fails too, I'll consult with one of my seasoned climber friends up there and get one of these...

"Ha, ha, you did [insert route name here] everyone knows that's a dangerous [choose one: runnout, old school, sketchy, chossy, sandbagged,] route."

Said route was probably put up in the 1980's by some local young talented maniac climber with a death wish, crushing brews/smoking with his guy friends powered by enough hubris to topple a small army and themselves at the same time.

Someone needs to come out with a book called "Frickin Easy Climbs: New Hampshire Trad Climbs Novices Will Actually Find Fun And Safe"

« Last Edit: April 03, 2012, 11:47:05 AM by mechanicalchris »

#### apbt1976

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##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #43 on: April 03, 2012, 11:26:46 AM »
How can you estimate if you're going to break your leg or not lol?

When I took that fall on White Horse it definitely effected my climbing. In a way it was a great experience, the whole system worked and I only bumped my knee but it shattered the facade, my hubris and newbie sense of confidence. Now as soon as I feel in over my head, my leg starts shaking and my climbing goes out the window.

My risk management now is to lead things I believe I have a 99% chance of completing while mitigating the other 1% with gear placements. As has been expressed to me by some pretty talented (older) climber friends, "you shouldn't lead ice if you think there's a chance you could fall." To which I say, "What about trad?" ... to which they say, "Basically the same rule applies."

I'm not thinking about the specific anatomical injuries as that would further degrade my prospect for a successful lead. Of course, even this prudent approach proves inadequate most of the time. I get pissed off because there's a huge generation gap between good trad climbers and the next gen and the beta is abstract at best. Unlike most hobbies, it seems to resemble an upside down pyramid, with most of the knowledge and participants being decades older and better and fewer new entrants into trad.

Most of the route descriptions, beta, and tips comes from you accomplished guys who can't really remember what its like to be new. So then I show up with my girlfriend and a route will say something inviting like "Joe's Joe's First Ascent: great 5.4 beginners route follow the obvious crack". So then I'm thinking, "Ok Im on-siting 5.10 at the gym and 5.8 at Rumney, I know there's disparity between the ratings and I'm not great but 5.4? C'mon this has to be well below my ability, we have to have finally found a route that's challenging, safe, and fun."

So then I'm cruising and everything is working great and then all of a sudden the gear placements start to become non-existent and the moves get crimpy, the 5.4 feels more like a 5.8 and then my leg starts shaking, there's no obvious crack, wet moss everywhere, and its non-stop terror until I flop over the top in relief." It never fails too, I'll consult with one of my seasoned climber friends up there and get one of these...

"Ha, ha, you did [insert route name here] everyone knows that's a dangerous [choose one: runnout, old school, sketchy, chossy, sandbagged,] route."

Said route was probably put up in the 1980's by some local young talented maniac climber with a death wish, crushing brews/smoking with his guy friends powered by enough hubris to topple a small army and themselves at the same time.

Someone needs to come out with a book called "F&*Cking Easy Climbs: New Hampshire Trad Climbs Novices Will Actually Find Fun And Safe"

Ha ha..

Being new to climbing learning Trad is pretty much my sole reason for climbing. I also find myself pondering all the same questions at the moment. I have to remind myself to slow down "that it is the journey not the destination".

The aging 34 year old man in me is in quite a rush to be honest as i have some high aspirations while my body is still operating at 99.9%. I have a feeling some of the things i aspire towards a 45-60 year old body may have a hard time with!

Maybe not but i don't really wanna wait and find out the hard way!!

#### mechanicalchris

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• W2 isn't a grade, it's a style
##### Re: level of risk?
« Reply #44 on: April 03, 2012, 12:38:09 PM »

Ha ha..

Being new to climbing learning Trad is pretty much my sole reason for climbing. I also find myself pondering all the same questions at the moment. I have to remind myself to slow down "that it is the journey not the destination".

The aging 34 year old man in me is in quite a rush to be honest as i have some high aspirations while my body is still operating at 99.9%. I have a feeling some of the things i aspire towards a 45-60 year old body may have a hard time with!

Maybe not but i don't really wanna wait and find out the hard way!!

You know I was thinking about this thread and it dawned on me that Laura and I saw a kid snap his leg in half bouldering at metro rock a few weeks ago. I'd never seen anyone break their leg... and he was just bouldering a few feet up in a gym! With a squishy floor! Bouldering in a gym is probably safer than pogs. It just goes to show you that in all sports you can sustain injuries and I don't think you can predict "if" and "when" you're going to break bones.

BTW, the best climbers I know are over 50, 60, and 70 ... that's why I climb with them lol

For some reason they seem to share the same approach to climbing as us. Its our peers/younger that we sometimes have difficulty climbing with.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2012, 01:04:47 PM by mechanicalchris »