I have a question that is being discussed a bit on Views from the top.. how sketchy is 2 Moderate avy risk? i am not an ice climber so i have no idea if these guys were being unreasonable or not. would most go? some go?
This is a tough question to answer directly, as there are many shades of “Moderate”. The details are in the actual forecast discussion and require some careful reading/interpreting...
During “Moderate” conditions the likely-hood of a natural avalanche is unlikely, but a human triggered slide is “possible”.
What that means is you need to know;
1) Where avalanches start, slope angles, start zones, trigger points like convexities, etc.
2) What conditions could be making it worse: more loading from snow or blowing snow, etc
Most avalanche accidents happen during Moderate and Considerable Ratings... people usually get the idea if it is rated High/Extreme.
The real answer to the question lies within the forecast discussion which helps identify what the “problem” is that day, where the problem might be, and where you should probably avoid (or go). Historically, in the East, we have a high rate of accomplished ice climbers with little to no avalanche training other than what they may have read in a book. Ice climbers need to catch up to back-country skiers in taking avalanche terrain more seriously and not just looking at the Low/Moderate/Considerable rating and basing all their choices on that.
For another way to look at this specific group, if you only focus on “human triggered possible”... this was “human triggered possible times 12”... not good odds even without reading the details...
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