And for the one of you who doubts the definition of risk, I will let MIT explain the concept:
In the equation they said: "If both the probability and severity can be quantified
, the risk is simply the product: risk = probability * severity".
What was the probability that Jamie was in an avalanche in his story. We can not quantify it? What was the severity of being in the avalanche, some people survive at an avalanche. So, both the probability and the severity CAN NOT be quantify in climbing. Your equation is for management, not for climbing. So, you think that because you said that marijuana is dangerous for your health and you smoke a lot younger that your child won't take drugs? (note I am allergic to any combustion of leaves or green bark, I take a chance to dye if I smoke). The dream to be in the mountain after reading the story of jamie will be greater, but your child will have less knowledge because you bring them in a situation where you had fun, but it is not for your child.
The definition of risk is: A situation involving exposure to danger. One can climb everest and will not be in danger for all his trip. It is what tradmand said. He was soloing standard and was safer than some new rope up climber. In your text, I prefer the probabilistic risk assesment (PRA) as a tool to evaluate the risk:
1. Identify hazards and initiating events
2. Identify mitigating safety measures
3. Trace possible chains of events
4. Quantify all individual probabilities and severities
5. Aggregate probabilities and severities, and calculate risks
For avalanches, identify hazards could be to identify the avalanche bed and identify the initiating events could be trigger by human, if it is it will depend on the direction that the human take, or natural avalanche, 2- identify mitigating safety measures: don't be under it or cross it very fast or at certain time and hours or...
You can use the PRA to analyse an accident. Many times, you will understand that the person never do a probabilistic risk assesment, but just do the "state of the art method" without thinking.