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General => Climbing NOT (Bitch & moan, Politics) => Topic started by: xcrag_corex on October 14, 2012, 01:45:57 pm

Title: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: xcrag_corex on October 14, 2012, 01:45:57 pm
This is how I will view the mainstream media political circus ;)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QlwilbVYvUg
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: darwined on October 14, 2012, 03:01:41 pm
Pheeew...I needed that.  The moderator's voice is hilarious. :D 

This election cycle has caused me so much stress.  I have questioned my own philosophy for the first time in years.  It's so hard to be sure what the right medicine is this time around.  To me, they seem like wings on the same bird ???. 
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on October 14, 2012, 05:07:20 pm
There is a cartoon on the internet called "The illusion of choice"  It shows a cow looking at two entrances; one is Democrat and the other Republican.  On the other side they both lead into the slaughterhouse.

As Frank Zappa said: "Politics is the entertainment division of the military industrial complex."

I'm voting for the libertarian Gary Johnson, but then I have a free vote as the Democrap always wins Massachusetts, and all our electoral votes.

If you live in New Hampshire then voting for Romney might actually make a difference, not that I would ever vote for someone who thinks that we need to increase defense spending (like spending more than the rest of the world allreaday isn't enough, lol).
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: tradmanclimbz on October 15, 2012, 07:49:17 am
is this voter intimidation? http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/koch-industries-sends-pro-romney-packet-employees-195709471--election.html (http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/koch-industries-sends-pro-romney-packet-employees-195709471--election.html)
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: neiceclimber on October 15, 2012, 01:18:09 pm
is this voter intimidation? http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/koch-industries-sends-pro-romney-packet-employees-195709471--election.html (http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/koch-industries-sends-pro-romney-packet-employees-195709471--election.html)

Yes, and if they don't send the CEO to prison or silence the Koch's Obama should pull the same BS. Something like send a bunch of e- mails and batch mailers to every military member stating " vote for me or the other guy will send you to Iran." or perhaps one to every govt employee stating " when they talk about cutting back spending, they mean layoffs."
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: xcrag_corex on October 15, 2012, 05:14:17 pm
wow. these are some low tactics people are using...not cool
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: DWT on October 18, 2012, 06:21:34 pm
I'm really glad Thanksgiving is after the election.  I don't think I could drink enough to suffer through another shouting match at the dinner table.  It's been pretty heated the last few Thanksgivings :-\.  Hopefully some hatchets can be buried after November 6th.  I'm not holding my breath though.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: xcrag_corex on October 18, 2012, 09:33:26 pm
Wait wait wait Derek. You can't let modern American politics muck up your Thanksgiving!!!!! Thanksgiving is a day in which we celebrate the exploitation and eradication of the Native Americans..... :-[
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 06, 2012, 06:28:38 pm
So glad this is over.  Everyone worked up over the choice between Coke and Pepsi.  Whoever wins, we lose.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: M_Sprague on November 06, 2012, 07:33:58 pm
Maybe I will run next time. I'd be more like a Tuckermans IPA. I could be the first president with a blow-up doll for a first lady.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: xcrag_corex on November 06, 2012, 08:16:10 pm
mark +1 for your honesty plus my vote......as long as that doll can keep her rights....
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 06, 2012, 11:46:53 pm
Folks in NH must have had it bad from both sides!  Man, am I glad it is over!!
Winner was declared by all major networks at around 11.23p EST this time around.
In 2008, it was around 11.01p EST.

Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: pappy on November 07, 2012, 09:59:01 am
So glad this is over.  Everyone worked up over the choice between Coke and Pepsi.  Whoever wins, we lose.

Maybe, but we lost a lot bigger this way.  I am deeply, deeply saddened. This was not a Coke/Pepsi year. BHO is without question the worst President of my lifetime; that the people could re-elect such an abject failure means that, to me, the social compact is ruptured: The assumption behind a democratic society is that, eventually, the electorate will make the right--or at least a rational--choice. Even with so many economically and politically ignorant people. Wisdom of the crowds kind of thing. You can expect an electorate to take a flyer now and then on something new and different; to re-elect such when it has not only failed so completely but has been actively inimical to a system that has benefited so many is appalling.

I can only give you the perspective of someone who started and is building a high tech manufacturing business (you, know the kind that provides jobs that are good not only because they pay well, but also provide the satisfaction of actually producing something useful): I will be managing for the least possible number of employees. I will not, for the first time in twenty years across three companies, be offering health insurance starting in 2014. I'll be making decisions whose primary focus won't be on building the business or growing profits but on avoiding taxes. I'm currently in the PRV and was going to move anyway--I just can't take the ignorance and insanity anymore--and was seriously considering NH, but now I'm so pissed with NH I don't know.

I know a lot of very smart, highly productive people--you know, job creators. None of them aspire (this was true even before this disaster) to a bigger house, more expensive car, etc. We all aspire to just one thing: To make enough money to run and hide. I once saw a sign on the desk of an engineer at Lawrence Livermore that read: "Evidence is not the plural of anecdote," (one of my favorites. I'd like to see it tattooed onto every legislator), so take it for what it's worth, but the rest of you should think about that.

We are likely facing some very tough times. This bozo and his enablers (and thank you MA for adding another, especially ignorant one to the mix. a$$holes) blew through $6 trillion we don't have, with no discernable benefit, and with no end in sight. This was not financed by the Chinese, like so many ignorant twits think, two thirds of the debt issued by the Treasury last year was bought by the Fed. They do that by making up the money. Believe it or not, that is not sustainable, nor can it be made up by taxing 'the rich': We could have seized every penny the top 1% made last year and it would not have covered the deficit for that year--and good luck finding that 1% to fleece the next year. The chickens will come home to roost, and these birds are going to be black with flaming red eyes and razors for talons. Likely most people won't understand the worst result--those things that might have been and aren't, the medical technology that won't be commercialized, the businesses that won't be pursued--because we don't require people to learn economics and they don't get that concept of 'opportunity cost', which is a far more real and important cost than, say, the 'hidden' cost of carbon emissions.

It will become obvious except to the most obtuse, although I suppose that covers the bulk of those who voted for BHO, why I will expect an apology from those who did. Whether I will accept it depends upon how bad things get.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 07, 2012, 10:13:44 am
You are right Pappy, now we will have to listen to four more years of: "Bush's fault, Republican's fault, blah blah...," as we slide into the Depression.

Now if Romney had won, things would have been totally different. It would have been four years of listening to: "Obama's fault, Democrat's fault, blah blah," as we slid into the Depression.


Seriously (although that was serious), Romney wasn't much of an alternative. You know, the guy who forced mandatory health care on Massachusetts and said he wouldn't scrap all of Obama care. 

The military industrial complex, banksters and multi-national corporations win EVERY presidential selection.

And it is still Bush as the worst president ever, although I'm sure that Obama will equal or surpass him with another four years.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: old_school on November 07, 2012, 10:25:21 am
And it is still Bush as the worst president ever,

Yepper!
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 07, 2012, 10:28:41 am
And it is still Bush as the worst president ever,      although I'm sure that Obama will equal or surpass him with another four years.
Yes, and maybe true, though for the sake of EVERYONE, I sure hope not.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: M_Sprague on November 07, 2012, 10:45:19 am
Well, Obama has made me mad with some things, but I don't know how anybody in their right mind could vote for Romney, least of all due to the fact that he was surrounding himself and bringing back some of the worst neocon types from the Bush administation. I would dread the resulting Supreme Court if Romney got to pick new Justices. I don't see it as coke vs pepsi at all, maybe coke vs sour milk.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: Admin Al on November 07, 2012, 10:50:52 am
I don't see it as coke vs pepsi at all, maybe coke vs sour milk.

+1
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 07, 2012, 11:10:11 am

I don't see it as coke vs pepsi at all, maybe coke vs sour milk.

Not much choice for me since I do not drink Pepsi or Coca-Cola/Coke or sour milk.  I eat cheese and yogurt though :):)
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 07, 2012, 11:20:11 am
So glad this is over.  Everyone worked up over the choice between Coke and Pepsi.  Whoever wins, we lose.

Maybe, but we lost a lot bigger this way.  I am deeply, deeply saddened. This was not a Coke/Pepsi year. BHO is without question the worst President of my lifetime; that the people could re-elect such an abject failure means that, to me, the social compact is ruptured: The assumption behind a democratic society is that, eventually, the electorate will make the right--or at least a rational--choice. Even with so many economically and politically ignorant people. Wisdom of the crowds kind of thing. You can expect an electorate to take a flyer now and then on something new and different; to re-elect such when it has not only failed so completely but has been actively inimical to a system that has benefited so many is appalling.

I can only give you the perspective of someone who started and is building a high tech manufacturing business (you, know the kind that provides jobs that are good not only because they pay well, but also provide the satisfaction of actually producing something useful): I will be managing for the least possible number of employees. I will not, for the first time in twenty years across three companies, be offering health insurance starting in 2014. I'll be making decisions whose primary focus won't be on building the business or growing profits but on avoiding taxes. I'm currently in the PRV and was going to move anyway--I just can't take the ignorance and insanity anymore--and was seriously considering NH, but now I'm so pissed with NH I don't know.

I know a lot of very smart, highly productive people--you know, job creators. None of them aspire (this was true even before this disaster) to a bigger house, more expensive car, etc. We all aspire to just one thing: To make enough money to run and hide. I once saw a sign on the desk of an engineer at Lawrence Livermore that read: "Evidence is not the plural of anecdote," (one of my favorites. I'd like to see it tattooed onto every legislator), so take it for what it's worth, but the rest of you should think about that.

We are likely facing some very tough times. This bozo and his enablers (and thank you MA for adding another, especially ignorant one to the mix. a$$holes) blew through $6 trillion we don't have, with no discernable benefit, and with no end in sight. This was not financed by the Chinese, like so many ignorant twits think, two thirds of the debt issued by the Treasury last year was bought by the Fed. They do that by making up the money. Believe it or not, that is not sustainable, nor can it be made up by taxing 'the rich': We could have seized every penny the top 1% made last year and it would not have covered the deficit for that year--and good luck finding that 1% to fleece the next year. The chickens will come home to roost, and these birds are going to be black with flaming red eyes and razors for talons. Likely most people won't understand the worst result--those things that might have been and aren't, the medical technology that won't be commercialized, the businesses that won't be pursued--because we don't require people to learn economics and they don't get that concept of 'opportunity cost', which is a far more real and important cost than, say, the 'hidden' cost of carbon emissions.

It will become obvious except to the most obtuse, although I suppose that covers the bulk of those who voted for BHO, why I will expect an apology from those who did. Whether I will accept it depends upon how bad things get.

(http://media.giantbomb.com/uploads/11/110013/2304795-good_good_let_the_butthurt_flow_through_you_1.jpg)
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 07, 2012, 11:24:07 am
Ok ok I'll play nice. This might help.

(http://i1020.photobucket.com/albums/af324/wil318466/rev_dawgmaspatentedbutthurtcream.jpg)
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: strandman on November 07, 2012, 11:38:56 am
The worst ever ??? I'm sure some of you remember Ronnie
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: Jeff on November 07, 2012, 12:41:12 pm
The worst ever ??? I'm sure some of you remember Ronnie

Indeed I do remember Ronnie, although "W" gave him a good run for his money (with our $, BTW)-- two wars still on our credit card, which pappy and others seem to want to blame on President Obama! Of course Mitch McConnell  ("our job is to see that the President has only one term") will accept no blame for the current state of the economy--after all why should Congress support a Jobs bill and, more particularly, one which would help Veterans returning from the above mentioned wars find employment? Now that the election is over and the re-elected president (by Popular Vote as well as by the Electoral College!) can now only serve this one term, maybe (ok I'm an optimist) the Congress will see fit to take their oaths seriously and actually serve the People instead of the Party! Of course that would require some of them to sack up and refuse to follow the lead of the "Bat-Shit Crazies" of the Tea Party!
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 07, 2012, 01:47:12 pm
Michele Bachmann was able to retain her seat only be the narrowest of margins, even though she had outspent her opponent 12-to-1.

Thanks Jeff, I was trying to figure out who had said this ("our job is to see that the President has only one term") last night.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 07, 2012, 02:56:39 pm
Well, Obama has made me mad with some things, but I don't know how anybody in their right mind could vote for Romney, least of all due to the fact that he was surrounding himself and bringing back some of the worst neocon types from the Bush administation. I would dread the resulting Supreme Court if Romney got to pick new Justices. I don't see it as coke vs pepsi at all, maybe coke vs sour milk.


How in your right mind can you vote for Obama? 

He has a "kill list" that has executed American citizens, including a 16 year old, without any charges or trial.  He swore to uphold the Constitution, and is allegedly a "Constitutional scholar," but apparently is unfamiliar with the Bill of Rights.

He signed into law the extension of the so-called "Patriot Act," which allows the NSA to spy on us without a warrant, another clear violation of the Constitution.

He has started additional undeclared wars by bombing and killing people in Yemen and Pakistan.

I'm still waiting for the war in Afghanistan to end.  Why are we there again?

Thank God he got the Peace Prize, lol.




And the ship is sinking, whatever he does.  For every two dollars the government takes in, it spends three.  This is not going to be made up for by raising taxes.  Even if they cut everything 100% but entitlements, the budget would STILL be out of balance.   Current US citizen debt per citizen is 35% higher than the Greek's (and this doesn't include literally tens of trillions in unfunded mandates like Social Security).

Get your lifeboats ready, gentlemen.


Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: DWT on November 07, 2012, 05:40:26 pm
Democrats and Republicans are wings on the same bird.  The real enemy is the debt-based fiat monetary system.  Of course politicians are going to spend more than they take in.  It's how they buy votes.  Romney would have spent just as fast(albeit on battleships and tanks) as Obama.  Politicians couldn't spend the money if the FED wasn't buying 40 billion in treasuries every month.   The largest holder of US debt is our own central bank which, by the way, is a PRIVATE corporation.  They print money(out of thin air) and loan it to the gov at interest.  R or D doesn't matter, the money supply is always expanding (MAKING YOUR DOLLARS WORTH LESS EVERY DAY). >:(



I'm with Ward.  MAN THE EFFIN LIFEBOATS FOLKS!
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 07, 2012, 06:09:51 pm
How much is 1USD really worth?  A very tough question to answer since the Nixon Shock of 1971, which totally decoupled the USD from the value of gold.
As already pointed out, billions of USD can be, and has been, created, seemingly out of thin air.

So, yes, a house of cards.  Everything is fine until enough people stop drinking the Cool-Aid, start disbelieving, and topple the house of cards.

Here's a quote I managed to drag up and it sure seems that Paul Krugman might be clairvoyant (read last sentence) -
In 1996, Paul Krugman summarized the post-Nixon Shock era as follows:
"The current world monetary system assigns no special role to gold; indeed, the Federal Reserve is not obliged to tie the dollar to anything. It can print as much or as little money as it deems appropriate. There are powerful advantages to such an unconstrained system. Above all, the Fed is free to respond to actual or threatened recessions by pumping in money. To take only one example, that flexibility is the reason the stock market crash of 1987—which started out every bit as frightening as that of 1929—did not cause a slump in the real economy. While a freely floating national money has advantages, however, it also has risks. For one thing, it can create uncertainties for international traders and investors. Over the past five years, the dollar has been worth as much as 120 yen and as little as 80. The costs of this volatility are hard to measure (partly because sophisticated financial markets allow businesses to hedge much of that risk), but they must be significant. Furthermore, a system that leaves monetary managers free to do good also leaves them free to be irresponsible—and, in some countries, they have been quick to take the opportunity."

Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: strandman on November 07, 2012, 07:04:54 pm
The last balanced budget was under which administration??

Bubba

last time we weren't at war ?

Bubba
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: triguy on November 07, 2012, 07:10:59 pm
The most shocking statement I heard last night was a Senator spending $100 million on her lelection campaign.

Let that figure sink in for a bit......

How much did you spend trying to get your last job?

Why do they get to spend that much money trying to get hired?

I can think of a lot of good that can be done with $100,000,000.....money that was wasted if she is not elected.....prolly wasted if she is.  :'(
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: DWT on November 07, 2012, 07:35:34 pm
How much is 1USD really worth?

In 1949 1USD bought nearly four gallons of gas.  Today I paid $3.50 for one gallon.  During the time period between 1949-2012 oil exploration and drilling technology has(at the very least) kept up with the demand.  Soon it'll be cheaper to heat homes by burning dollars instead of oil.   
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 07, 2012, 08:00:20 pm
$1 in goods in 1949 adjusted for inflation would now cost $9.31 which would purchase 2.66 gallons at $3.50 per gallon. So at first glance it looks like gas is outpacing inflation, but I wonder what percentage of the cost for 1949 versus today was taxes and fees. There may be a higher percent of tax and fees today meaning the cost may not have risen at all.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 07, 2012, 08:10:48 pm
OPEC certainly had and has an effect on the price at gas pumps in the US.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: DWT on November 07, 2012, 08:14:56 pm
"adjusted for inflation"

 


Exactly.   Inflation: the process by which the dollar is robbed of purchasing power.

I don't know anybody making 3.5 times what they were making in 1996 when gas was $1.00 per gallon. :'(
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 07, 2012, 08:31:11 pm
I am not quite sure gas (regular) price ever dipped to $1/gal back in 1996.  But I do recall briefly paying $1.50~1.70/gal back in 2003.  Amazing isn't it?

Ironically, Department of Energy forecasts US production of crude and other liquid hydrocarbons, which includes biofuels, will average 11.4 million barrels per day next year (2013). That would be just shy of the amount Saudi Arabia produces.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 07, 2012, 08:32:30 pm
"adjusted for inflation"

 


Exactly.   Inflation: the process by which the dollar is robbed of purchasing power.

I don't know anybody making 3.5 times what they were making in 1996 when gas was $1.00 per gallon. :'(


Check out how much of total wealth is in control of the top few percent now versus then and we'll probably find at least a modest part of the problem.

But inflation in and of itself is not only not bad but absolutely necessary unless I misunderstood a lot of what I learned about economics, business, and capitalism in school.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 07, 2012, 08:37:02 pm
OPEC certainly had and has an effect on the price at gas pumps in the US.

I wouldn't think it's had too much of an effect unless you think the price was artificially low in 1949 or unless my hypothesis about taxes and fees as a percentage being lower back then is wrong. Honesty I don't know for certain, but I do know that Saudi Arabia pretty much pumps the amount we tell them to. (That's kind of simplistic but not far from reality imo.)
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 07, 2012, 08:47:05 pm
Found some good info relevant to this discussion:


Quote
Although nominal wages have tripled from $6.57 to nearly $20 per hour since 1980, the negative effects of inflation have reduced that 200% gain to a measly 1.51% real wage increase -- in 32 years! Compare this 1.51% real pay raise to gasoline's 40% bump, and there's your answer to why gas feels like it costs more.



Quote
But I hope this presents the other side of the argument -- that neither OPEC nor oil companies are the direct cause of your pain at the pump. It's really a combination of poor wage growth and a disassociation with the effects of inflation that have people on edge about gas prices.


source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/06/26/quit-griping-about-gas-prices----its-all-in-your-/


It doesn't say where the 40% increase in real dollars actually comes from but I guess it's demand outstripping supply but supply not really being controlled by OPEC.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: DWT on November 07, 2012, 08:56:51 pm
 ;)

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/ess_inflation.html

cheers
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 07, 2012, 08:59:53 pm
Bear in mind that the published inflation figures are from the government, and are bullshit.  Shadowstats has inflation numbers using the same criteria the government used to use, and it is much higher than officially admitted.  They don"t use such things as food and energy in their "core" inflation calculations, for example, making the figure garbage.  I mean, who uses energy and eats food?

The standard of living for most Americans has been declining for years.  Higher taxes, inflation, and stagnant wages.

My father was a starting high school teacher in the early 60"s and bought a house on four acres in southern Rhode island, owned two cars with a wife that didn't work and four kids.  Try that today.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 07, 2012, 09:09:07 pm
Funny, just looked up the gas price in 1964 and it was .30 a gallon.   Of course the three dimes were silver, which are worth $2.30 each in silver now, for a total cost of $6.90 a gallon.

It does show you how much our money hasn been debased just in my lifetime.

Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 07, 2012, 09:10:14 pm
Bear in mind that the published inflation figures are from the government, and are bullshit.  Shadowstats has inflation numbers using the same criteria the government used to use, and it is much higher than officially admitted.  They don"t use such things as food and energy in their "core" inflation calculations, for example, making the figure garbage.  I mean, who uses energy and eats food?

The standard of living for most Americans has been declining for years.  Higher taxes, inflation, and stagnant wages.

My father was a starting high school teacher in the early 60"s and bought a house on four acres in southern Rhode island, owned two cars with a wife that didn't work and four kids.  Try that today.

Actually the fact that they don't count energy in the inflation figure yet we're looking at the rising price of gas versus inflation probably accounts for most of the 40% discrepancy.

I don't dispute your other points except for maybe taxes. Are taxes actually higher now than in the early 60's? I know the federal income tax rates are relatively low compared to historical rates. I also know my property tax has gone up an insane amount since I bought my house 10 years ago.

Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: DWT on November 07, 2012, 09:24:59 pm
One things for sure, I will be planning trips to Colorado and Washington immediately. ;D  At least this election cycle was good for something.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 07, 2012, 09:42:19 pm
Bear in mind that the published inflation figures are from the government, and are bullshit.  Shadowstats has inflation numbers using the same criteria the government used to use, and it is much higher than officially admitted.  They don"t use such things as food and energy in their "core" inflation calculations, for example, making the figure garbage.  I mean, who uses energy and eats food?

The standard of living for most Americans has been declining for years.  Higher taxes, inflation, and stagnant wages.

My father was a starting high school teacher in the early 60"s and bought a house on four acres in southern Rhode island, owned two cars with a wife that didn't work and four kids.  Try that today.

Actually the fact that they don't count energy in the inflation figure yet we're looking at the rising price of gas versus inflation probably accounts for most of the 40% discrepancy.

I don't dispute your other points except for maybe taxes. Are taxes actually higher now than in the early 60's? I know the federal income tax rates are relatively low compared to historical rates. I also know my property tax has gone up an insane amount since I bought my house 10 years ago.

Income tax rates were higher, at least for the rich, but that is only one tax out of many.  Social security tax was much lower, gasoline tax was much lower, property tax was much lower, sales tax was much lower, there was no Medicare tax.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: Flotsam on November 09, 2012, 11:14:16 am
Eyebolter, from most of what you complained about you should have written "I can't believe anyone in their right mind would have voted for either Rumney or O-man".  Because if you think that Rumney would have stopped the trashing of the constitution (which by the way is favorite presidential past time nearly all them) you may not be paying attention.  Rumney agreed with most of what has been done foreign policy wise, although I think he would have liked it better if he'd done it. 

We have all been tolerating these specific constitutional trashings since GW started the land war in Asia.  I dislike them but in retro spec it appears to have been a good political calculation because we all complain about it but few voted based on it (GaryJ only got 1%).

He has a "kill list" that has executed American citizens, including a 16 year old, without any charges or trial.  He swore to uphold the Constitution, and is allegedly a "Constitutional scholar," but apparently is unfamiliar with the Bill of Rights.
Pretty sure GW started the dead or alive list... If O-man didn't keep it going he'd be labeled a weak liberal and would have gotten trounced on the issue in the election... turned out security was a non-issue in the election.

He signed into law the extension of the so-called "Patriot Act," which allows the NSA to spy on us without a warrant, another clear violation of the Constitution.
Extending the 2001 GW law that was extended in 2005.  Another likely political calculation because security was a non-issue in the election.  I'm hopefully this will get gutted when renewal comes up in 2015 but I doubt it because democrats are scared of their own shadow when it comes to security issues because they have been labeled weak for so long.

He has started additional undeclared wars by bombing and killing people in Yemen and Pakistan.
Started by GW, again another likely political calculation....

I'm still waiting for the war in Afghanistan to end.  Why are we there again?
yup most of us I think would agree, however long term it is prolly in our best interests to have some sort of stability there because the last round of instability lead to the military mess we are in now.

Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 09, 2012, 01:19:11 pm
Flotsam, I was responding to Mark S.  I agree, I didn't vote for Romney either.

Many of the things you say were "non issues" in the campaign were non-sissues because they were deliberately avoided by the corporate media and the Democrat/Republican controlled "debates."   Most Americans have no idea that Obama signed the Patriot Act extension, nor that he is killing Americans without a trial. 

I do think that Obama's election will hasten the decline faster than Romney's would have.  Lots of businesses will be doing things in order to avoid having to pay healthcare including: not hiring new workers to stay below the threshold; firing workers to get below the threshold; and cutting worker's hours to part-time-they will hire additional part-timers, get the same amount of work, and avoid Obama care.   The stock market will likely continue to sell off as investors would rather pay the lower tax rate this year that the tax increases that are coming.   

As a Libertarian, I am not in favor of a single payer system, but I do see how it would reduce costs.  Obamacare will not reduce costs at all; what it will reduce is employment.   


Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 09, 2012, 07:41:40 pm
The takers have now outnumbered the makers...we are doomed unless you think people really can get things for free.


Google: "do i qualify" and "how to qualify".............interesting stuff will pop up.

Benefits.gov - Your Path to Government Benefits

www.benefits.gov

Benefit Finder ·
Browse by State ·
Benefits ·
Browse by Category

Benefits.gov is a partnership of many Federal agencies and organizations with a shared vision - to provide improved, personalized access to government benefit
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: Flotsam on November 10, 2012, 09:08:42 am
The takers have now outnumbered the makers...we are doomed unless you think people really can get things for free.
I don't think anyone would disagree with the basic statement but when applied to the current situation it is an over simplification and not completely accurate. 

As a Libertarian, I am not in favor of a single payer system, but I do see how it would reduce costs.   Obamacare will not reduce costs at all; what it will reduce is employment.
While I would have liked something different, I think the general dooms day fears are overblown.  There is a functioning health care system that is very similar to Obamacare in Switzerland.  Where it is compulsory to purchase health insurance which is either done on the individual level or through employment.  Their cost of healthcare is less and unemployment is lower.  I wouldn't say simple correlation is accurate (the swiss have lots of job killing regulations) but it is an example of similar successfully functioning system.  This makes me think if it's not implemented in a bonehead fashion it could succeed.   I guess that depends of if we ever stop arguing about if it should exist in the first place.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 10, 2012, 11:28:22 am
The takers have now outnumbered the makers...we are doomed unless you think people really can get things for free.


So who are you including in the "takers" category?

If you're including retired folks collecting social security and disabled vets and people temporarily unemployed and other such people who have paid into the system for a long time (and/or with bodyparts) and it's not exactly fair to label them as takers.

Regarding www.benefits.gov:

It looks to me like benefits.gov may just be a more efficient and cost effective way to help people get answers they need. I took a quick look and it basically handles everything from veterans assistance to social security to medicaid/medicare to research grants, etc. That website probably saves a ton in labor costs versus having people answering phone calls.

I'm not including you in this category because it's pretty clear you actually do care about deficit spending and the debt based on your comments about the military, but tons of people that spout off about this stuff are full of crap. They went off on these awesome rants about spending when Obama took office, but didn't say a peep the prior 8 years when W spent like a drunken sailor. They don't care about the debt: What really gets them fired up is the perception of lazy brown people getting free stuff.

As far as the coming apocalypse: I think you're wrong. It's just not going to happen unless something occurs like the talk about some kind of space storm or maybe a meteor strike that knocks out the grid for years and years. While we're likely not going to return to the levels of prosperity enjoyed during that brief period of time after WW2 when folks like grocery store produce managers (like my grandfather) could own vacation homes, we still have it pretty good.

The challenge now is competing in a global labor force where even skilled/educated labor is often cheap and it's increasingly frowned upon for the developed world to impose their will on less developed nations in order to unfairly enjoy the benefits of their resources. 
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 10, 2012, 07:46:56 pm
The takers have now outnumbered the makers...we are doomed unless you think people really can get things for free.


So who are you including in the "takers" category?

If you're including retired folks collecting social security and disabled vets and people temporarily unemployed and other such people who have paid into the system for a long time (and/or with bodyparts) and it's not exactly fair to label them as takers.

As far as the coming apocalypse: I think you're wrong. It's just not going to happen unless something occurs like the talk about some kind of space storm or maybe a meteor strike that knocks out the grid for years and years. While we're likely not going to return to the levels of prosperity enjoyed during that brief period of time after WW2 when folks like grocery store produce managers (like my grandfather) could own vacation homes, we still have it pretty good.

The challenge now is competing in a global labor force where even skilled/educated labor is often cheap and it's increasingly frowned upon for the developed world to impose their will on less developed nations in order to unfairly enjoy the benefits of their resources.


I include everyone getting a government check as a taker, and that includes the "defense (sic)" industry.  I agree, those who paid into SS deserve it, but the plain fact is that our government has already spent every single dime they paid in.  The "trust fund" is crap. They spent it on wars, medicare drug benefits, etc.  Gone.  Nada.

So now my mother's SS is supposed to be paid by younger workers, who can't provide what is due, so the Fed is now creating money out of thin air to pay the difference.

How can they do this?  This gets into the coming apocalypse.  They can do this because the US Dollar is the world's "reserve currency" as per Nixon's Bretton Woods agreement where the US stopped paying debts in gold.  Since then, all transactions for oil purchases from OPEC must be made in US dollars. So, for example, if Brazil wants to buy oil from OPEC they need to convert their currency into US dollars.  You think this inflates the value of the dollar maybe?

This is one of the main reasons for our wars.    Ghadaffi bombed the pan am flight, but when he tried to create a gold based African currency he ended up dead.   The Libyan "rebels' " first action was to create a central bank trading in dollars....not your Princess Lea and Luke Skywalker rebellion that is for sure.

Saddam Hussein was fine when he poison gassed the Kurds and the Iranians, in fact we upped his aid, but some things are just not acceptable to the Empire.  When he started selling oil in Euros.....dead.

And now Iran is "developing WMD's"  I'm sure that it is just a coincidence that Iran is selling oil in yen and bartering with India for food and other goods.

When China and the rest of the world dump the dollar as the world's reserve currency, and they will, you will see what your dollar is really worth. 

The Soviet Union had a wonderful pension plan for everyone.  Then they invaded Afghanistan and went broke.  Sound familiar?
 
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 10, 2012, 08:18:57 pm
Actually, Iran is hoarding gold because of its own currency woes.
Not to mention the Govt there is probably not pleased to be paid with USD or to pay in USD!!

As I had said, house of cards, everything is just great until toublemakers like Ward show up ..... :):)
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 10, 2012, 08:25:41 pm
Actually, Iran is hoarding gold because of its own currency woes.
Not to mention the Govt there is probably not pleased to be paid with USD or to pay in USD!!

As I had said, house of cards, everything is just great until toublemakers like Ward show up ..... :):)

I know, I should stick to rap bolting before a predator drone shows up in my window.

Only kidding...kind of.

I LOVE OBAMA!
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 10, 2012, 09:54:51 pm
I LOVE OBAMA!
No, you don't! 
But, tell Ella not to worry about Predator drones. 
Instead, tell her to worry whether she can send Predator the climb before she turns 12 in age!  :)

For better or worse, Obama has been re-elected; 50.1% of popular vote cast, much bigger margin of victory in electoral votes, and he swept ALL 8 "Swing States of 2012". As the saying goes "The People has spoken".

I would not want to be Karl Rove these days!!!


Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: strandman on November 11, 2012, 04:20:46 pm
I bet Rove, limbaugh and others didn't even vote

fuck'm
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: frik on November 12, 2012, 08:45:50 am
Iran is not hording gold.... they are buying gold as a means to get around the sanctions. So they can purchase high tech stuff, military equipment, plutonium, used N. Korean subs, porn, whatever with gold rather than the Dinar - which nobody wants.

 As for the social security trust fund.. it is fully funded until 2036 at which point it still won't be empty. After 2036 it won't be able to pay full benefits  without some minor tweaks. It's true the trust fund isn't a vault full of dollar bills, it is US treasuries. You pay into SS, congress takes the money as general revenue and pays the SS trust fund in treasuries.
 
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 12, 2012, 08:51:24 am
Iran is not hording gold.... they are buying gold as a means to get around the sanctions. So they can purchase high tech stuff, military equipment, plutonium, used N. Korean subs, porn, whatever with gold rather than the Dinar - which nobody wants.

 As for the social security trust fund.. it is fully funded until 2036 at which point it still won't be empty. After 2036 it won't be able to pay full benefits  without some minor tweaks. It's true the trust fund isn't a vault full of dollar bills, it is US treasuries. You pay into SS, congress takes the money as general revenue and pays the SS trust fund in treasuries.
 
All correct, Frik.  Thanks for the correction, and more importantly, the clarifications.
The dire state of SS is often (but not always) overstated. That said, I am not sure if it will be around, in roughly the same form, past 2050.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 12, 2012, 09:28:41 am
When China and the rest of the world dump the dollar as the world's reserve currency, and they will, you will see what your dollar is really worth.

China has already started doing this, and India too.

I mean, it's pretty easy for the politicians to manipulate and fool the general population with fear and race baiting, but if this was certain to lead to financial doom, wouldn't the smart money have bailed by now? It's not so easy to keep the smart money in the dark about what's really going down imo.

Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: M_Sprague on November 12, 2012, 03:24:40 pm
There is always hope.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/george-w-bush-returns-to-america-after-spending-4,29688/ (http://www.theonion.com/articles/george-w-bush-returns-to-america-after-spending-4,29688/)
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: Jeff on November 12, 2012, 04:58:59 pm
There is always hope.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/george-w-bush-returns-to-america-after-spending-4,29688/ (http://www.theonion.com/articles/george-w-bush-returns-to-america-after-spending-4,29688/)

Gotta love the Onion! :D
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 12, 2012, 05:07:56 pm
Iran is not hording gold.... they are buying gold as a means to get around the sanctions. So they can purchase high tech stuff, military equipment, plutonium, used N. Korean subs, porn, whatever with gold rather than the Dinar - which nobody wants.

 As for the social security trust fund.. it is fully funded until 2036 at which point it still won't be empty. After 2036 it won't be able to pay full benefits  without some minor tweaks. It's true the trust fund isn't a vault full of dollar bills, it is US treasuries. You pay into SS, congress takes the money as general revenue and pays the SS trust fund in treasuries.
 

Social security is NOT fully funded until 2036.   Treasuries are basically IOU's; as such they are hardly an asset to the nation that issues them; they might as well not exist ( How is an IOU to yourself an asset?).

The government is currently paying SS benefits as if the "trust fund" did not exist (since it doesn't): by taxing and printing money.  SS is already paying out more than it takes in.

By 2036 you might be able to buy a loaf of bread with your SS check, if you even get one.

As Alan Greenspan said before Congress: "We can guarantee Social Security benefits as long as you like.  What we cannot guarantee is the purchasing power of those benefits."


 
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: M_Sprague on November 12, 2012, 05:23:43 pm
There is always hope.

...maybe not
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5pD7RwZDbU&feature=related
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 12, 2012, 08:04:31 pm

Many will find data presented at this URL interesting - http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/assets.html

I think the data is trustworthy.  In combination, the two SS Trust Funds are lately not accumulating assets at as good a rate as they were 1999 to 2009.  And beginning at around 2009, outgo have occasionally exceeded income and I think this is what panicked a lot of people.  As to how much the SS check in 2036 will really get you, hard to say but I have to think considerably more than a loaf of bread.  Remember, one of the Fed Reserve's main roles is to maintain price stability, which means to keep a (relatively) low inflation rate.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: M_Sprague on November 12, 2012, 09:52:13 pm
SS needs to be need based. If I have a couple million or more in the bank, other assets and no mortgage, I don't think I should be collecting. That should help extend its viability a little. I don't know how we can handle the age limit. if you are a white collar worker, then working until 68 or even 70 seems plausible if needed, but are we supposed to make a roofer work until 70? 

Then, we need very basic fully socialized medicine. It should have nothing to do with your employment. Businesses should be running their business, not worrying about all the paperwork and expense of health insurance. If you want to get any of those ridiculously expensive end of life operations or crazily expensive drugs to extend your life 6 months when you are already 80, pay for it on your own by buying extra insurance if you wish. A huge percent of our medical costs are for the last 6 months of life. It may sound harsh, but no, those last moments of life, hooked up to machines are not "priceless". I sure don't want society to spend the resources to keep me gasping and rotting for 6 months when it could be used to give 3 people a good education, save a crag or build a house for a young family who could use it for the rest of their lives.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: apbt1976 on November 12, 2012, 09:57:28 pm
Dam,

I could not have voiced that set of thoughts better myself.

Only thing i will add is that the only part of the past election i was a bit disappointed by was Mass not voting in the " Death With Dignity" bill......

SS needs to be need based. If I have a couple million or more in the bank, other assets and no mortgage, I don't think I should be collecting. That should help extend its viability a little. I don't know how we can handle the age limit. if you are a white collar worker, then working until 68 or even 70 seems plausible if needed, but are we supposed to make a roofer work until 70? 

Then, we need very basic fully socialized medicine. If you want to get any of those ridiculously expensive end of life operations or crazily expensive drugs to extend your life 6 months when you are already 80, pay for it on your own by buying extra insurance if you wish. A huge percent of our medical costs are for the last 6 months of life. It may sound harsh, but no, those last moments of life, hooked up to machines are not "priceless". I sure don't want society to spend the resources to keep me gasping and rotting for 6 months when it could be used to give 3 people a good education, save a crag or build a house for a young family who could use it for the rest of their lives.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: DWT on November 12, 2012, 10:27:46 pm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303561504577497442109193610.html


Look around the political landscape folks.  You see any leaders? :'(
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: DWT on November 12, 2012, 10:29:21 pm
SS needs to be need based. If I have a couple million or more in the bank, other assets and no mortgage, I don't think I should be collecting. That should help extend its viability a little. I don't know how we can handle the age limit. if you are a white collar worker, then working until 68 or even 70 seems plausible if needed, but are we supposed to make a roofer work until 70? 

Then, we need very basic fully socialized medicine. It should have nothing to do with your employment. Businesses should be running their business, not worrying about all the paperwork and expense of health insurance. If you want to get any of those ridiculously expensive end of life operations or crazily expensive drugs to extend your life 6 months when you are already 80, pay for it on your own by buying extra insurance if you wish. A huge percent of our medical costs are for the last 6 months of life. It may sound harsh, but no, those last moments of life, hooked up to machines are not "priceless". I sure don't want society to spend the resources to keep me gasping and rotting for 6 months when it could be used to give 3 people a good education, save a crag or build a house for a young family who could use it for the rest of their lives.

The voice of reason.  You'd never make it in politics ;)
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 12, 2012, 11:10:16 pm
SS needs to be need based. If I have a couple million or more in the bank, other assets and no mortgage, I don't think I should be collecting. That should help extend its viability a little. I don't know how we can handle the age limit. if you are a white collar worker, then working until 68 or even 70 seems plausible if needed, but are we supposed to make a roofer work until 70? 

Then, we need very basic fully socialized medicine. It should have nothing to do with your employment. Businesses should be running their business, not worrying about all the paperwork and expense of health insurance. If you want to get any of those ridiculously expensive end of life operations or crazily expensive drugs to extend your life 6 months when you are already 80, pay for it on your own by buying extra insurance if you wish. A huge percent of our medical costs are for the last 6 months of life. It may sound harsh, but no, those last moments of life, hooked up to machines are not "priceless". I sure don't want society to spend the resources to keep me gasping and rotting for 6 months when it could be used to give 3 people a good education, save a crag or build a house for a young family who could use it for the rest of their lives.

The voice of reason.  You'd never make it in politics ;)

Yes but, ZOMFG DEATH PANELS!!!
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: Admin Al on November 13, 2012, 09:06:07 am
Then, we need very basic fully socialized medicine. It should have nothing to do with your employment. Businesses should be running their business, not worrying about all the paperwork and expense of health insurance.

+++
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: strandman on November 13, 2012, 09:44:53 am
The only problem with need -based is what about the money you paid in for x number of years ???

The end of life thing is a tricky subject, i know my father would not have wanted to spend the last months the way he did with parkinson's. if my mother had not been around......

Personally, i think every American citizen deserves access to health care, Fund it by getting the hell out of the  sand boxes of the world
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 13, 2012, 10:59:03 am

Many will find data presented at this URL interesting - http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/assets.html

I think the data is trustworthy.  In combination, the two SS Trust Funds are lately not accumulating assets at as good a rate as they were 1999 to 2009.  And beginning at around 2009, outgo have occasionally exceeded income and I think this is what panicked a lot of people.  As to how much the SS check in 2036 will really get you, hard to say but I have to think considerably more than a loaf of bread.  Remember, one of the Fed Reserve's main roles is to maintain price stability, which means to keep a (relatively) low inflation rate.


Sure, you can trust the government. On paper, there is plenty of money in the "trust fund," but as I stated previously there might as well be zero.  A treasury bill is hardly an asset to the government that issued it.  When the Treasury bills in the "trust fund" come due to make up the SS shortfall the government will need to:
1. Raise taxes; 2. Cut SS benefits; 3. Borrow even more money (getting much harder for them to do); and 4. Create money digitally.  The Fed is already doing the latter in order to make up the SS and other budgetary shortfalls (hence QE1, QE2, and now QE infinity).  If the T bills did not exist in the so called "trust fund" the government would do exactly the same things.  Hence, the "trust fund" is an accounting gimmick, nothing more.

And "price stability?"   Since the fed was created in 1913, the dollar has lost more than 95% of its value.  One shudders to think what it would be like if we didn't have stable prices, lol.


Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 13, 2012, 01:27:53 pm
If the dollar is so worthless and has lost so much purchasing power how come most of us are driving fairly new cars and own our own houses with a large screen TV in every room and a garage larger than most 3rd world apartment buildings?



edited: to be less of a smart arse.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: frik on November 13, 2012, 04:48:48 pm
Hey you trying to "pass"? I don't believe you even have a garage, you social climber you!
 

 
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on November 13, 2012, 04:52:30 pm
If the dollar is so worthless and has lost so much purchasing power how come most of us are driving fairly new cars and own our own houses with a large screen TV in every room and a garage larger than most 3rd world apartment buildings?



edited: to be less of a smart arse.

I read your original post, and you can be a wise ass all you want.  I know that I often am!

You are confusing two issues.  The dollar clearly has lost most of its value.  As an example, in 1913 rich people used $20 gold pieces.  The "melt" metal value (not the actual value) of those 20 dollar gold pieces right now is $1,667.  And 99% of Americans don't own any gold right now (good luck to you).  Silver was used in our coinage until 1965; a dime in 1964 is worth $2.35 melt now (source: coinflation.com).    My parents bought a house and barn on four acres in southern Rhode Island in 1964 for $10,000; a similar property now would be a steal at $250,000.  No, the property, silver and gold are not "more expensive" than they were; the dollar has lost that much value over time due to the Federal reserve and their money creation.

People in this country enjoy a high standard of living because, as I have posted previously, the US dollar is still the world's "reserve currency."  If you want to buy oil from OPEC you need to convert your currency into dollars; if you don't we invade and kill you.  This makes the US dollar the best looking cow in line at the glue factory.

When the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency, we will be just another cow at the glue factory and the dollar's value will plunge accordingly.

And one final point:  Most Americans' don't own their own home; they own their own mortgage.  Many Americans now owe more than their home is worth.  Especially great when you realize that the bank didn't have the money you "borrowed" in the first place; you created it by the act of borrowing (Google "fractional reserve banking").  Of course, if you can't make the payments then they will own your home that you bought with money that they didn't lend you.  A wonderful system. For them.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: strandman on November 13, 2012, 04:57:24 pm
I'm glad i own silver and gold
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 13, 2012, 05:04:02 pm
If the dollar is so worthless and has lost so much purchasing power how come most of us are driving fairly new cars and own our own houses with a large screen TV in every room and a garage larger than most 3rd world apartment buildings?



edited: to be less of a smart arse.

I read your original post, and you can be a wise ass all you want.  I know that I often am!

You are confusing two issues.  The dollar clearly has lost most of its value.  As an example, in 1913 rich people used $20 gold pieces.  The "melt" metal value (not the actual value) of those 20 dollar gold pieces right now is $1,667.  And 99% of Americans don't own any gold right now (good luck to you).  Silver was used in our coinage until 1965; a dime in 1964 is worth $2.35 melt now (source: coinflation.com).    My parents bought a house and barn on four acres in southern Rhode Island in 1964 for $10,000; a similar property now would be a steal at $250,000.  No, the property, silver and gold are not "more expensive" than they were; the dollar has lost that much value over time due to the Federal reserve and their money creation.

People in this country enjoy a high standard of living because, as I have posted previously, the US dollar is still the world's "reserve currency."  If you want to buy oil from OPEC you need to convert your currency into dollars; if you don't we invade and kill you.  This makes the US dollar the best looking cow in line at the glue factory.

When the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency, we will be just another cow at the glue factory and the dollar's value will plunge accordingly.

And one final point:  Most Americans' don't own their own home; they own their own mortgage.  Many Americans now owe more than their home is worth.  Especially great when you realize that the bank didn't have the money you "borrowed" in the first place; you created it by the act of borrowing (Google "fractional reserve banking").  Of course, if you can't make the payments then they will own your home that you bought with money that they didn't lend you.  A wonderful system. For them.


I understand inflation. Things cost a lot more--but we also make a lot more money too so it's relative. When I get done paying back the bank I will actually own a physical home and piece of property.

I mentioned this before, but I'm still curious why the smart money didn't run from the dollar when India and China announced they were going to drop the dollar when it comes to oil? 

 
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 13, 2012, 05:07:42 pm
I'm glad i own silver and gold
+1, Good move to divest some into precious metals ..... just GLD for me.

When the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency, we will be just another cow at the glue factory and the dollar's value will plunge accordingly.
+1, Ward.  For a while there, the Euro looked like it might treathened the Greenback.
Looked at the Swiss Franc lately?  Or the SIN Dollar?   But there is not enough of either to be a viable reserve currency for the world.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 13, 2012, 08:02:37 pm
Some numbers about income versus inflation rate over the past 40 years.
Inflation over that period has run about 4.4% yoy cumulatively which works out to (1.044)^40 = 560%.
This data is based on the CPI which Ward disputes and I agree is a "low ball" figure.
Over the same time period, median household income has risen from $8k/yr to $50k/yr according to census figures, or an increase of 625%. 
But say real inflation (beyond CPI numbers) is more like 5.5% yoy over the past 40 year.  This would mean inflation over the same 40-year period is more like 850%, significantly outpacing the rise in median household income.  I believe this is indeed what has happened and we have all felt it.  Couple that with the post 2009 low property prices, no wonder so many are in  dire straits and everyone feels poorer than their parents.  I know I do!
What a cheerful thought! :)
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: frik on November 14, 2012, 09:46:20 am
pretty sure OPEC doesn't sell oil. When you buy oil, its on the "open market" and you can pay in any valid currency. For convenience, the calculation of how much you pay is based on the value of the oil in US dollars and how much your currency is worth against the dollar.

In terms of the decrease in the buying power of the us dollar, don't confuse currency inflation with supply/demand.
Also i wouldn't put much stock in comparing 1913 and today... the Great depression, a couple world wars, sox traded Ruth... a lot has happened  in there.
 
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 14, 2012, 11:44:01 am
Some numbers about income versus inflation rate over the past 40 years.
Inflation over that period has run about 4.4% yoy cumulatively which works out to (1.044)^40 = 560%.
This data is based on the CPI which Ward disputes and I agree is a "low ball" figure.
Over the same time period, median household income has risen from $8k/yr to $50k/yr according to census figures, or an increase of 625%. 
But say real inflation (beyond CPI numbers) is more like 5.5% yoy over the past 40 year.  This would mean inflation over the same 40-year period is more like 850%, significantly outpacing the rise in median household income.  I believe this is indeed what has happened and we have all felt it.  Couple that with the post 2009 low property prices, no wonder so many are in  dire straits and everyone feels poorer than their parents.  I know I do!
What a cheerful thought! :)

This is for sure true. And it's bound to feel worse when we've been in recession mode for a few years. However, a large part of the problem is income distribution. There is still plenty of money being made, it's just been funneled straight to the top. And that in large part is why I voted for Obama over Romney despite having to hold my nose due to Obama's policy when it comes to drones, foreign entanglements, and the Patriot Act issues.

(Social issues and the environment are the other big reasons I have to vote for the Dems.)
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 14, 2012, 12:16:38 pm
In terms of the decrease in the buying power of the us dollar, don't confuse currency inflation with supply/demand.
Again, exactly right.  House prices were going through the roof about '95 to '07, at a rate much higher than inflation for those years.


There is still plenty of money being made, it's just been funneled straight to the top.
I delibrately avouided bringing up this angle but it is plain for all to see in the census data.  The "Top 2%" has done very well for themselves the past two decades or so.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: Admin Al on November 14, 2012, 03:03:05 pm
just look at how well the stock market has done since Obama was elected?
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 14, 2012, 03:40:27 pm
I had to look it up; S&P500 hovered at around 900 the first week of Nov back in 2008.  Last week, it was around 1380 or sligthly more than 50% higher than 900.  I know my investments have not appreciated anything near that much in value over the past four years!  Woe be me!!
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: M_Sprague on November 14, 2012, 04:29:56 pm
You should have just bought Apple in 2009 when its 100 dma moved over the 200. (I didn't either). I was looking at the chart back to 2001 and if I had just put the money I had back then in AAPL I would have over 10 million, lol. I just need a time machine.
I'm short the market now. It is looking pretty ugly atm. Bennie has distorted the market so much, though that things are tricky to read for trading.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: strandman on November 14, 2012, 06:13:43 pm
HA HA-- I bought Microsoft in '87 :P

Silver in 2005 and real estate in 2007
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: Flotsam on November 14, 2012, 06:54:51 pm
Looked at the Swiss Franc lately?  Or the SIN Dollar?   But there is not enough of either to be a viable reserve currency for the world.

Know your currencies... The Swiss franc is highly manipulated by their bank to keep the value down.  Considering they are a touron destination or exporter a high value wrecks their echonomy.  Currently it is pinned at a max of 1.2 SFranc to 1 euro. Singapore Dollar, that it's backed / value by a few hundred billion in US dollar reserves.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: dpen on November 14, 2012, 07:05:16 pm
The bottom 80% have taken a beating...but it hasn't ALL gone to the top 1%, but some to next 19% too...couldn't find income amount break point for the 19%....

Total Net Worth
Top 1 percent   Next 19 percent   Bottom 80 percent
1983   33.8%   47.5%   18.7%
1989   37.4%   46.2%   16.5%
1992   37.2%   46.6%   16.2%
1995   38.5%   45.4%   16.1%
1998   38.1%   45.3%   16.6%
2001   33.4%   51.0%   15.6%
2004   34.3%   50.3%   15.3%
2007   34.6%   50.5%   15.0%
2010   35.4%   53.5%   11.1%
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: sneoh on November 14, 2012, 11:33:05 pm
The Swiss franc is highly manipulated by their bank to keep the value down.  Considering they are a touron destination or exporter a high value wrecks their economy.  Currently it is pinned at a max of 1.2 SFranc to 1 euro.
Yes, I spent a week in Switzerland this past winter working with what we call a "small high tech" business and they were really hurt by the strength of the Franc, even after it was pegged to the Euro (which I gather is to curb massive asset flight from individuals living within the Euro Zone).  Imagine if the peg was not put in place? 

As for strength of SGD, I believe it has a lot to do with the economy, their central bank's intervention, and how a LOT of people in Asia consider SIN as a safe haven for their wealth.  By the way, the SGD has appreciated substantially against the USD over the past 2 years.

In any case, absent any seismic change, the USD (not Euro or RMB) will remain the world's reserve currency for at least a little longer still.

Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: dpen on November 15, 2012, 10:48:54 am
Here's another quote and reference I found interesting:

 But it is also important to realize that the lower half of that top 1% has far less than those in the top half; in fact, both wealth and income are super-concentrated in the top 0.1%, which is just one in a thousand. (To get an idea of the differences, take a look at an insider account by a long-time investment manager (http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/investment_manager.html)who works for the well-to-do and very rich. It nicely explains what the different levels have -- and how they got it. Also, David Cay Johnston (2011) has written a column about the differences among the top 1%, based on 2009 IRS information.)

Maybe not that surprising, and the 99-99.5% are still a lot better off than everyone else, but ultra wealth, is concentrated in about 0.1%...Many among these are the folks that brought you mortgage backed secrurities, derivatives, and credit default swaps --
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: fresh on November 15, 2012, 03:45:46 pm
just look at how well the stock market has done since Obama was elected?
this really surprised me, because obama had a much higher chance of winning, and a democratic expansion in congress was also expected. it appears traders don't pay attention to statistical forecasts--a scary thought. otherwise, more people would have been short selling, correcting the market.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: JBro on November 15, 2012, 09:44:12 pm
just look at how well the stock market has done since Obama was elected?
this really surprised me, because obama had a much higher chance of winning, and a democratic expansion in congress was also expected. it appears traders don't pay attention to statistical forecasts--a scary thought. otherwise, more people would have been short selling, correcting the market.

i think Al meant since Obama was first elected 4 years ago?

But anyway I believe the recent sell off has little to do with the election results and a lot more to do with the economic news coming out of Europe.
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: Admin Al on November 15, 2012, 11:05:31 pm
i think Al meant since Obama was first elected 4 years ago?

But anyway I believe the recent sell off has little to do with the election results and a lot more to do with the economic news coming out of Europe.

yes and yes
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: Admin Al on November 18, 2012, 09:35:36 pm
Barbara Bush On Obama's Reelection: 'People Spoke. Move On, Get On With It'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/16/former-first-lady-barbara_n_2141769.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: DWT on January 15, 2013, 07:11:01 pm
http://www.europac.net/media/video_blog/inflation_propaganda_exposed
Title: Re: the next couple of weeks......
Post by: eyebolter on January 15, 2013, 07:37:45 pm
We are going to hear about those awful republicans who won't vote to raise the debt ceiling, and Obama refuses to negotiate.

Funny, when Obama was a senator he voted against raising the debt ceiling when bush was president.

Apparently 8 trillion in debt was too much for Obama, but 16 trillion isn't enough.

Or maybe he is full of shit